CHONGQING (CQNEWS) -- Though it’s been the middle of December, most places in Chongqing are still in autumn. The winter is coming late this year. Chongqing Meteorological Observatory issued an IV Early Warning for Low Temperatures, Rain, and Snow on December 13, reporting that this Friday and weekend will see the most significant temperature drop of the year. Will the temperature drop accelerate the arrival of winter in Chongqing?

Over the past 60 years, winter has come later and later in many places in Chongqing, and the probability of a warm winter is increasing. As of December 10 this year, winter has set in in only four districts and counties of Chongqing, namely, Chengkou, Qianjiang, Wushan, and Youyang. The very active cold front this weekend will speed up the arrival of winter in Chongqing.

The average temperature in the first ten days of December this year is persistently high

Reaching the highest level compared to that in the same periods since 1995

Chongqing's climate monitoring and analysis platform shows that from November 1 to November 30 this year, the average temperature in Chongqing was 14.4℃, 1℃ higher than the same periods in previous years, reaching the third highest for the same periods since 2014. Since December, the average temperature in Chongqing has been persistently high. From December 1 to December 10, the average temperature in Chongqing was 11.4℃, 1.7℃ higher than the same periods of the previous years, reaching the highest in the same periods since 1995.

Climatologically speaking, winter has set in in only four districts and counties of Chongqing, namely, Chengkou, Qianjiang, Wushan, and Youyang, according to the updated Chongqing Winter Summary in 2023. At this time of year, winter has started in most places in Chongqing.

Tang Hongyu, a senior engineer at the Chongqing Climate Center, said that the weak cold air affecting Chongqing since mid-November has led to high temperatures in most areas, which is the main reason for the late start of winter in Chongqing this year. However, with an active cold front affecting Chongqing from Friday to Sunday, winter is expected to start in most places of Chongqing.

Probability of warm winters has increased in recent years

Winter is getting shorter in many places in Chongqing

Big data sorted by Chongqing Weather shows that during the 60 years from 1961 to 2020, winter tended to come later and later in most places of Chongqing. Compared with the average start date of winter in the 2011-2020 period and the 1991-2000 period, winter came late in 13 districts and counties of Chongqing, namely, Fengjie, Shapingba, Shizhu, Jiangjin, Wanzhou, Rongchang, Fengdu, Yunyang, Dianjiang, Yubei, Kaizhou, Changshou, and Xiushan. In particular, winter arrived 13.7 days late in Fengjie, and more than two days late in Shapingba, Shizhu, Jiangjin, Wanzhou, Rongchang, and Fengdu.

Affected by global warming, the time of seasons has seen great changes in China. Most places see early spring and summer while winter comes increasingly late. Overall, summer becomes longer while winter is getting shorter, said Zhang Juan, Weather Analyst from China Weather Forecast.

Winter is significantly getting shorter. In Chongqing’s Shapingba, for example, the average number of winter days in the 1961-1970 period was 73, but it shrunk to 49.2 days in the 2011-2020 period, and the proportion of winter days in the time of four seasons also dropped from 25.1 percent to 15.7 percent.

With the influence of global warming, the probability of a warm winter in Chongqing is increasing. The statistics from 1961 to 2022 show that since the late 1990s, the probability of the average winter temperature exceeding the annual average has been increasing.

Although there has been an increase in high average winter temperatures in recent years, the seasonal fluctuations of temperature are obvious. In the winter of 2022/2023, for example, the average temperature in December 2022 was relatively low, ranking second over the same periods since 1986; the weather got warm quickly in February 2023, with the average temperature reaching the second highest over the same periods since 2016.

Overall temperature in Chongqing this winter is higher than usual

There are periods of cold rain and snow-freezing weather

The El Niño event in the winter of 2023/2024 will continue, said Jia Xiaolong, Deputy Director of the National Climate Center, at the press conference held by the China Meteorological Administration in November this year. The probability of warm winters in China is higher in El Niño-influenced years.

The overall temperature in Chongqing this winter will be higher than normal, with obvious periodic fluctuation of temperatures; it is expected that in late December, late January, early February, and early March, areas over 800 meters above sea level may experience periods of low temperature, rain, and snow, according to the climate forecasts from the Chongqing Municipal Climate Center for this winter and next spring.

The meteorological department suggested the public pay attention to the periodic cold rain and snow weather that may bring adverse effects, as winter temperature fluctuates greatly under the influence of the El Niño event. (Translated by Yuki, Fathom Language Limited)